Les amis de Jehan

13 mars, 2014

ASEAN

Classé dans : Non classé — jehan92 @ 12:49

Note sur l’ASEAN 13 03 2014

Conférence IFRI

 

 

J’ai assisté partiellement à l’IFRI à la conférence sur « rising instability in East Asia and prospects for a lasting peace ».

Malgré les conditions difficiles (absence de traduction simultanée), j’ai retenu les points suivants:

1- L’ombre de la Chine plane sur les pays de l’ASEAN . Ceux-ci font parfois le parallélisme avec les pays de l’OTAN et la Russie. Ils ont souvent évoqué le problème de l’Ukraine.

 

2-La politique étrangère chinoise se caractérise par la recherche de stabilité. Elle est guidée par la ligne du 18ème congrès exprimée par l’ancien président Hu Jintao. Elle met en exergue le principe de développement pacifique.

Elle met l’accent sur la nécessité de la puissance maritime pour faire respecter les droits souverains de la Chine.

La Chine considère qu’elle doit avoir 3 champs d’action nécessitant des politiques spécifiques.

 

1-Le face à face Chine-Etats-Unis.

La Chine a conscience d’être encerclée par la puissance américaine, de la Corée à Taiwan avec une profondeur stratégique. Elle développe une théorie stratégique particulière, celle d’un « poing léger » (léger bras de fer) utilisé contre le poing très dur des USA. L’idée est que le résultat d’une intéraction assymétrique entre le léger et le dur devrait permettre d’adoucir le dur.

L’idée  d’une dureté mutuelle des deux côtés rendrait le conflit inévitable. Mais la Chine a vocation aussi quand les circonstances le permettront à employer la ligne dure et à faire plier les USA.

 

2- La rivalité Chine-Japon est un problème en soi. Elle s’exprime par la tension sur les îles Senkaku.

Cette rivalité est perçue comme un problème récurrent depuis des décennies.

 

3- Le jeu avec les acteurs régionaux de L’ASEAN:

Il faut mettre à part le cas spécifique de Taiwan. Les tensions ont baissé d’intensité et le cas de Taiwan est cité en exemple.

 

5 points semblent être pertinents dans les relations entre la Chine et les pays de l’ASEAN.:

 

a- Le nationalisme qui se développe dans chacun des pays de l’ASEAN et qui pose des problèmes à chacun.

 

b- Les demandes de respect de souverainetés et de mise en place d’autorités juridictionnelles adéquates.

 

c- La compétition croissante pour l’exploitation des ressources maritimes.

 

d- La militarisation des conflits.

 

e- Le rôle des USA dans la zone.

 

Remarques:

1- J’ai remarqué que les élites des pays de l’ASEAN ont souvent été formées dans les universités anglo-saxonnes. La culture anglo-saxonne semble prédominer, avec une approche des problèmes proche de celle des organisations internationales.

 

2- L’Indonésie semble être le poids lourd des pays de l’ASEAN

 

3- Les institutions européennes constituent un exemple d’organisation. A aucun moment la France n’a été évoquée.

 

4- Le problème concernant les îles a été évoqué tout au long du colloque. On peut les considérer comme un thermomètre de l’état des tensions entre la Chine et ses voisins.

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